Sumber: The Fed | Editor: Hasbi Maulana
Total industrial production expanded, on net, in January and February, with gains in both manufacturing and mining. Automakers' schedules indicated that assemblies of light motor vehicles would likely edge down in coming months. However, broader indicators of manufacturing production, such as the new orders indexes from national and regional manufacturing surveys, pointed to further solid increases in factory output in the near term.
Consumer expenditures appeared likely to rise at a modest pace in the first quarter following a strong gain in the preceding quarter. Real PCE edged down in January, and the components of the nominal retail sales data used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to construct its estimate of PCE rose somewhat in February while the pace of light motor vehicle sales declined slightly. However, household spending was probably held back somewhat in February because of a delay in many federal tax refunds, and the subsequent delivery of those refunds would likely contribute to an increase in consumer spending in March. Moreover, the lower tax withholding resulting from the tax cuts enacted late last year, which was beginning to show through in consumers' paychecks, would likely provide some impetus to spending in coming months. More broadly, recent readings on key factors that influence consumer spending--including gains in employment and real disposable personal income, along with households' elevated net worth--continued to be supportive of solid real PCE growth in the near term. In addition, consumer sentiment in early March, as measured by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, was at its highest level since 2004.
Real residential investment looked to be slowing in the first quarter after rising briskly in the fourth quarter. Starts of new single-family homes increased in January and February, alÂthough building permit issuance moved down somewhat. Starts of multifamily units jumped in January but fell back in February. Sales of both new and existing homes declined in January.
